Israel and Turkey Shape a New Syria From Their Borderlands

(Bloomberg) — Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country to be changing as a result of this month’s toppling of longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The blurring of its borders is also underway — from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north.

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Israel’s military wasted no time advancing on Syria after Assad was overthrown by Islamist-led rebels two weeks ago, with troops moving eastward into a buffer zone established by a ceasefire between the two countries 50 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of a new threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah in the region. 

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“Israel will not permit jihadi groups to fill that vacuum and threaten Israeli communities,” Netanyahu’s office said last week. It described the deployment as temporary until a new Syrian administration — now led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, a former affiliate of Al-Qaeda — commits to the 1974 agreement.

Turkey has shown similar urgency in asserting its influence over a far greater portion of Syria, and US President-elect Donald Trump has called the country a key player in shaping the post-Assad political landscape.

One of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s key priorities is to push back Kurdish groups in the north with links to the PKK, an organization that’s long battled for an autonomous Kurdish region inside Turkey. 

The Syrian National Army, a group funded and advised by Ankara, has seized two northwestern towns since late November from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish ally in the US’s fight against Islamic State. The SNA will now likely try to capture more territory, Turkish officials familiar with the matter said this week. 

Erdogan’s ultimate aim is to create a buffer zone along the entire 900-kilometer (560-mile) Syria-Turkey border, though that goal looks hard to achieve in its entirety. Turkey says HTS supports the dismantling of Kurdish forces, though HTS hasn’t publicly commented. 

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Israel’s advance has extended its control of the Golan Heights — a piece of high ground that’s been a focus of global dispute since Israel seized it from Syria during a 1967 war. 

Before the fall of Assad, Israel controlled about two thirds of the territory, giving its military a view of southern Syria between the border and the capital, Damascus, 60 kilometers away, enabling it to monitor troop movements. The Golan offers fertile land — Israelis grow grapes and apples there — and is an important source of water.

While Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty of its Golan territory during his first term in 2019, the United Nations still considers it legally part of Syria. 

Dolan Abu Salah is head of the council in Majdal Shams, a village in the Israel-controlled part of the Golan that’s home to about 12,000 Druze people, a Middle Eastern religious and ethnic group. He says the local community is broadly welcoming of the Israel Defense Force’s advance, viewing it as a necessary security measure.

Assad’s fall “was a source of very great happiness, to the people here, to the Druze residents of the Golan,” Abu Salah, 46, said in the town, nestled in the foothills of the Hermon mountain and surrounded by orchards. But the “creation of a security zone is very, very important for the Golan Heights communities.” 

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Asked if Israel’s capture of new territory should become permanent, the council leader said it depends on the new Syrian leadership and “the potential for peace.”

“If we see that the new regime is potentially another terrorist group that will set the agenda, then the security zone must be permanent,” Abu Salah said. 

Majdal Shams was caught up in Israel’s battles with Iran-backed militias in July, when twelve children were killed and more than 20 injured in a rocket attack. Israel blamed the attack on Hezbollah, based across the border from Golan in Lebanon.

Nabih Al-Halabi, another Majdal Shams resident who works on solar-energy projects, said he’s optimistic about a stronger Israel-Syria peace deal post-Assad, but sympathizes with Israel’s wariness.

“I can understand their fears — they want to protect their borders,” he said. “They want to be sure about the stability of the new regime in Damascus and whether they will sign the peace agreement.”

Turkish Visit

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid a visit to Damascus on Sunday, meeting HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency aired footage of the two hugging each other in front of cameras. 

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Fidan on Wednesday said the “last thing” the nation wants is to be seen as the regional power with final control over Syria, though the government has made contact with, as well as making military gains in the north.

“We recognize the current administration, the new one, as a legitimate partner for Turkey and international interlocutors,” Fidan said. “I think HTS has taken huge steps to divorcing itself from al-Qaeda and Daesh and other radical elements,” he said, using an alternative name for Islamic State. 

Ankara has a strong incentive to secure influence over how Syria is eventually run. Turkey hosts more than 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor — a legacy of a more than 13-year war — while Turkish companies would stand to be major beneficiaries if and when postwar reconstruction starts.

“Ankara will look to shape the political and economic landscape in Syria to expand Turkish interests,” wrote Eurasia Group analysts including Emre Peker. “A good outcome in Syria for Turkey would help Erdogan project himself as an influential global leader and boost his historically low popularity.”

—With assistance from Beril Akman and Julius Domoney.

(Updates with Turkish minister’s visit in 18th paragraph.)

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